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RBI Revises Downwards India’s Real GDP Growth Forecast for FY23

The Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting panel has revised its forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth downwards to 6.8 per cent. “Even after this revision in our growth projections, India will still remain among the fastest-growing major economy,” Governor Das said. The biggest risks to the outlook remain global slowdown and tightening financial conditions.

In its last policy statement on September 30, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projected India’s GDP growth for the ongoing fiscal at 7 per cent.

Das said MPC has forecast Q3 GDP growth at 4.4%, and Q4 at 4.2%, with risks evenly balanced. The first quarter of the next financial year is set to grow at 7.1 %.

India’s GDP grew at 6.3% during the second quarter (July-September), in-line with most market participants’ expectations.

Here are few expert opinion on the latest RBI Monetary Policy.

Mr. Amit Goyal, CEO, India Sotheby’s International Reality

With global and domestic inflationary pressures continuing to drive central bankers,  the rate hike by RBI is on expected lines. So far, despite home loan interest rates increasing by 150 basis points demand for residential across top seven cities has been very strong.  We believe this momentum should continue till home loan rate remains in single digit.  We just hope that strong GDP growth, a steady jobs scenario and an elevated capex investment cycle will keep demand for real estate intact.

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Mr. Piyush Gupta, Managing Director, Capital Markets and Investment Services, Colliers India –

“The Reserve Bank of India has increased the repo rate for the fifth straight time as it looks to curb inflationary tendencies. This time the RBI increased repo rates by a slower 35 basis points to 6.25%. We can expect the banks to continue to increase housing loan rates mirroring the trend in repo rates. Affordable and mid-housing are the most sensitive to prices, and we might see some slowdown in the short term, with an increase in housing loan rates. We do not expect a significant impact on the high-end and luxury housing demand. At the same time, the RBI has also revised the FY23 GDP forecast from 7% earlier to 6.8%. However, the Indian economy continues to be resilient, with noticeable credit growth in the system”
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Mr. Piyush Bothra, Co-founder and CFO, Square Yards

The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to recalibrate the repo rate by a moderate 35 basis points sounds reasonable. The Central Bank followed a two-pronged objective with this hike-firstly to keep the inflationary pressures under check without curtailing growth and secondly to lower the impact on mortgage rates so that residential demand remains promising in the months to come. The affordability of home loan is still good despite consecutive hikes and with the buoyant homeownership sentiment reigning across the nation, the feel-good vibe about homebuying will still continue and property markets will witness optimistic housing sales in 2023.
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Mr. Saransh Trehan, managing director, Trehan Group

RBI has done a fine balancing act as the central bank continued with its efforts to tame inflation and at the same time prioritising growth. No body, may it be industry or consumers, want high-interest rate regime. We are hopefull and expect that going forward as inflation situation improves the rates will definitely taper.

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Garvit Tiwari, Director & Co-Founder – Inframantra, a Real Estate Consultancy Firm

“Real estate is one of the best sectors to invest in and looking forward to, we believe that the real estate market will grow over the next few years. The current rate hike might lead to short-term disturbance in the overall housing demand when buyers are positive in making a home buying decision which/that might lead to buyers’ overall acquisition cost.”

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